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When times get rough, Utah goes Democrat |
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If the US and Utah economies keep going sour, and gas prices continue their steep rise, look for Utah to possibly go Democratic this fall.
The state has gone solidly Republican since 1968, when Utah supported Richard Nixon in a close election against Democrat Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota. That includes the post-Watergate election of 1976, in which Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter defeated President Gerald Ford, and the Clinton elections of 1992 and 1996.
Before 1968, Utah voters tended to always support the winner, including Democrat Woodrow Wilson's landslide of 1916, Republicans Warren Harding (1920), Calvin Coolidge (1924) and Herbert Hoover (1928). Once the Great Depression hit following the 1929 stock market crash, Utahns apparently grew weary of Republican politics, voting for winning Democrat Franklin Roosevelt in the 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944 elections, and also supporting Democrat Harry Truman in his narrow victory over Thomas Dewey in 1948.
But in 1952, after the economy improved following World War II and Truman's Marshall Plan began to bring Europe out of its post-war financial crisis, Utahns returned to the Republican Party, giving former General Dwight Eisenhower two big wins against Democrat Adlai Stevenson of Illinois in the '52 and '56 elections. In 1960, Utah supported Republican Vice-President Nixon against Democratic Senator John F. Kennedy, but the Massachusetts Senator got enough electoral votes from big states to narrowly beat Nixon. Four years later, ads attacking Arizona Republican Senator Barry Goldwater had the effect of handing the election in a landslide to incumbent Democratic President Lyndon Johnson.
This year, the Democrats nationally have a very strong candidate in Barack Obama, who has been energizing the youth vote to levels not seen since John F. Kennedy. In fact, one need only look at the vote totals received by both Obama and rival Hillary Clinton to see that the Republican Party, even in Utah, could be in for a very tough general election.
Almost without exception, the vote totals of either Obama or Clinton eclipsed that of the total number of Republican votes cast in primaries ranging from California to New York, Texas to Oregon and Ohio and Pennsylvania. Not only did the Democrats outvote a large field of Republicans in both January and February, but they had turnouts sometimes of ten to one over the incumbent party. This, plus a large majority of voters who in all polls have said that the country is on the wrong course, could lead to a Democratic landslide not seen since the 1932 general election in which Franklin Roosevelt ousted incumbent Herbert Hoover by 413 electoral votes.
Some pundits have even suggested a Democratic avalanche that Roosevelt got for his second term in which he received 523 electoral votes to just eight for Republican Alf Landon.
Below is a chart showing the Utah vote in each election from 1896 to the present.
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Public School Choice now the law |
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New Law Empowering Parents Goes into Effect, Today
House Bill 349, a landmark education bill that empowers parents to choose their child’s public school, went into effect today. Previous open enrollment laws gave parents public school choice but only at the discretion of school administrators.
In one situation, a family gave legal custody of their daughter to her grandparents so that she could attend a neighboring high school that her doctors deemed would be a better environment for her delicate health situation. School administrators had denied the parents transfer request despite notes from doctors and the fact that she would be switching from an overcrowded school to one better suited to meet the child’s needs. (>read stories from other parents)
The passage of HB 349 is a culmination of a two year effort led by the Davis Parents Association and Parents for Choice in Education to improve Utah’s existing open enrollment policies.
“As a small grassroots parents organization, coordinating efforts with Parents for Choice in Education was invaluable to us,” said Randy Smith, head of the Davis Parents Association. “Their expertise helped make it possible for parents to meet with legislators face to face and make the case for improving open enrollment.”
HB 349 makes all public schools open to any Utah student so long as they have capacity as defined by each school district’s average class size. The bill also increases transparency by requiring districts to publish school capacity online and to grant requests without discrimination.
The bill passed with overwhelming bi-partisan support. Only one legislator voted against it in the House. It passed the Senate 25 to 2.
“This legislation was sorely needed. Parents now have another option to find a school environment that works for them,” said Robyn Bagley, chairman of Parents for Choice in Education. “PCE is filling a critical gap in the education dialogue. This is just one of many education reforms that PCE will continue to advocate for.” |
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Current Electoral Vote Estimate
